The government of Panama has declared a state of emergency as the country faces the effects of weather extremes associated with El Niño, including prolonged drought and irregular rainfall.

One of the biggest concerns is the Panama Canal, where reduced rainfall and declining freshwater reserves are forcing authorities to restrict the number of ships allowed to pass through one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.

The emergency declaration is intended to allow authorities to respond more quickly to the impacts of El Niño and accelerate administrative procedures needed to manage water shortages and other consequences.

What is happening in Panama?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that typically develops every two to seven years and is characterised by unusually warm surface waters across parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

This warming can significantly alter atmospheric circulation, affecting rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns across large parts of the world.

Its effects are not the same everywhere. Some regions experience unusually dry and hot conditions, while others can see increased rainfall and flooding.

For Panama, one of the most serious consequences is the pressure being placed on the country’s freshwater resources.

Panama Canal reduces daily ship traffic

The shortage of rainfall is particularly important for the Panama Canal because its lock system relies heavily on freshwater stored in artificial lakes.

Canal authorities announced plans to reduce the number of daily ship transits.

From September 3, daily crossings are expected to fall from 36 to 34 vessels, before being reduced further to 32 vessels per day from September 15.

The development has implications far beyond Panama.

The approximately 80-kilometre-long Panama Canal provides a vital connection between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, allowing ships to avoid the much longer journey around South America.

Around 5% of global seaborne trade passes through the canal, with the United States and China among its most important users.

Why drought is a major problem for the Panama Canal

Unlike a sea-level canal, the Panama Canal depends on a complex system of locks and freshwater reservoirs.

Large quantities of freshwater are required to move vessels through the locks. When rainfall decreases and reservoir levels fall, authorities have less water available to maintain normal operations.

A prolonged drought can therefore result in fewer daily transits, restrictions on vessel draft and longer waiting times.

If restrictions become more severe or persist for an extended period, the effects can spread through global supply chains, potentially increasing shipping times and transportation costs.

This makes rainfall across Panama important not only for the country’s population and environment, but also for international trade.

What is El Niño?

El Niño forms part of a larger natural climate pattern known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

During an El Niño event, unusually warm ocean temperatures develop across parts of the tropical Pacific. Changes in ocean temperatures then interact with the atmosphere, altering wind patterns and the distribution of tropical rainfall.

These changes can influence weather thousands of kilometres away from the Pacific.

However, it is important not to attribute every individual drought, flood or extreme weather event directly to El Niño. Its influence varies considerably depending on the region, season and interaction with other atmospheric patterns.

El Salvador also issues red alert

Panama is not the only Central American country dealing with severe dry conditions.

Further north, El Salvador declared a red alert because of drought conditions, which have already resulted in crop losses.

Agriculture can be particularly vulnerable during prolonged dry periods, especially when high temperatures increase evaporation and water demand at the same time.

Food production and water availability can therefore become major concerns if dry conditions persist.

El Niño’s impact could reach far beyond Central America

The situation in Panama illustrates how a large-scale climate phenomenon can have consequences extending well beyond weather itself.

Restrictions at the Panama Canal connect drought and water availability directly with international shipping and global commerce.

If reservoir levels continue to decline and further restrictions become necessary, disruptions could affect shipping routes between Asia, the Americas and Europe.

The evolution of rainfall and freshwater reserves across Panama will therefore be closely watched in the coming weeks — not only by meteorologists and local authorities, but also by the international shipping industry.