A new scientific study is raising fresh concerns about one of the most dangerous volcanic systems in Europe, suggesting that the Campi Flegrei caldera may be closer to eruption than previously believed.

 Scientists Warn of Increased Eruption Risk

Researchers from University College London and Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology have concluded that parts of the volcanic system are approaching a critical point.

By analyzing seismic activity and ground deformation, scientists found that the rock above the magma chamber is being stretched to near breaking limits — a key indicator that pressure is building underground.

A Supervolcano With a Violent Past

Campi Flegrei is not an ordinary volcano. It is a vast volcanic field near Naples that produced one of the largest eruptions in the Mediterranean in the last million years.

Around 37,000 years ago, it erupted with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7, an event far more powerful than the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD.

The eruption created a massive caldera roughly 12 kilometers wide. Since then, dozens of smaller eruptions have occurred, the most recent in 1538, forming the Monte Nuovo cone in just weeks.

Ongoing Activity Beneath the Surface

The volcanic system remains active today. Over recent decades, tens of thousands of small earthquakes have been recorded, along with gradual ground uplift — especially in the town of Pozzuoli, which has risen by nearly 4 meters.

This uplift is caused by volcanic gases and fluids accumulating beneath the surface, increasing pressure within the crust.

What the New Study Reveals

Using a physics-based model of rock behavior, researchers found that the crust is no longer just bending — it is beginning to crack.

These fractures could act as pathways for magma to rise toward the surface, increasing the likelihood of an eruption over time.

Importantly, the study does not predict an imminent eruption, but it shows that the system is evolving toward conditions where an eruption becomes more likely.

Why This Matters

Campi Flegrei sits near densely populated areas, including Naples, making it one of the most closely monitored volcanic systems in the world.

Even a moderate eruption could have significant impacts on millions of people.

Uncertainty Remains

Scientists emphasize that volcanic systems are complex and unpredictable. Campi Flegrei could stabilize, continue slow uplift cycles, or eventually erupt.

What is clear, however, is that preparedness is critical.

As researchers note, the key takeaway is not panic — but readiness for all possible scenarios.