A new study warns that the Atlantic Ocean circulation system could collapse, potentially triggering major climate disruptions across Europe and beyond.

The hidden system regulating global climate

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of the most critical components of Earth’s climate system.

It includes the Gulf Stream, a powerful ocean current that transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico toward the North Atlantic, helping keep regions like the UK significantly warmer than other areas at similar latitudes.

New study raises serious concerns

According to new research published in Science Advances, the AMOC may be far more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.

Scientists estimate that by the end of the century, the system could slow down by 42% to 58%, dramatically increasing the risk of a full collapse.

What happens if it collapses

A collapse of the AMOC would have major global consequences. Northwestern Europe could experience much colder conditions, with climates shifting toward those currently seen in Scandinavia.

At the same time, parts of Africa could face severe droughts, while sea levels along the east coast of North America could rise significantly.

Why the system is slowing down

The slowdown is closely linked to rising temperatures in the Arctic. As ocean waters warm, they become less dense and are less likely to sink, which is a key process that drives the circulation.

Additionally, melting ice releases large amounts of freshwater into the ocean. This freshwater is lighter than saltwater, further disrupting the sinking process and weakening the entire system.

Scientists are divided

While the findings are considered important, not all scientists fully agree. Stefan Rahmstorf described the results as “significant and concerning,” suggesting that the more pessimistic scenarios may actually be the most realistic.

Others, such as Fabian Roquet, remain more cautious, noting that more data is needed before drawing definitive conclusions.

A tipping point with no return

One of the most alarming possibilities is that the AMOC could reach a tipping point beyond which collapse becomes unavoidable, even if greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced.

If that happens, the impacts would be long-lasting and could fundamentally reshape global climate pattern