Government study, effects are feared in the Nankai fossa

An earthquake of devastating proportions in the Nankai Fossa, the area that extends for about 900 kilometers along the entire coast south of the Japan archipelago, would cause the death of almost 300 thousand people.

This is revealed by an updated research of the government Task Force, prepared for the preparation for natural disasters, explaining that the recent efforts of the municipalities to mitigate the damages have reduced the number of victims of about 10% compared to previous estimates of 2012;

However, a number lower than the objective of about 80% established in the 2014 government plan, highlighting the need for important reviews in the evacuation strategies and the improvement of infrastructure.

Specifically, the Task Force has foreseen that the number of evacuats will increase from the previous 2012 estimate of 9.5 million to 12.3 million, equal to about 10% of the Japanese population.

It is also estimated that a total of 764 municipalities in 31 of the 47 prefectures of the country, would undergo shocks of intensity less than 6 on the Japanese scale, on a maximum of 7, and waves of tsunami at least 3 meters high.

On an economic level, the research calculates damage that will reach 270,000 billion yen (1,670 billion euros), increasing compared to the old estimate of 214,000 billion yen, with a maximum number of buildings that is presumed will be completely destroyed, slightly reduced to 2.35 million, thanks to the adaptation of the anti-seismic criteria of the houses.

According to the report, 215,000 of the 298,000 dead deaths would be caused by the tsunami, considering that only 20% of people would immediately evacuate; While increasing the 70% evacuation rate, the budget of the tsunami victims to about 94,000 could be reduced, underlines the study. A dynamic that appears unlikely, analysts point out, given the progressive aging of the population in the country of the Rising Sun.

Among the expected scenarios, the most lethal provides for an earthquake of magnitude 9 which occurs on a winter night, with serious damage concentrated in the Tokai region, southwest of the capital. In this case, the number of deaths estimated by prefecture would be the highest in Shizuoka with 101,000, followed by Miyazaki with 33,000 and mine with 29,000.

In addition to the 298,000 estimated direct deaths, the government also provided for the first time between 26,000 and 52,000 “deaths linked to the consequences of the disaster” caused by situations such as the deterioration of health conditions in the evacuation sites.

The Nankai pit is at the origin of the most devastating earthquakes of the last centuries. Based on the most updated estimates of seismologists, there are between 70 and 80% of the possibilities that an earthquake of magnitude 8 or 9 occur long in the geographical area within the next 30 years.