Iceland has officially classified the potential collapse of a major Atlantic Ocean current system as a national security issue and an existential threat, prompting the government to prepare emergency response scenarios, according to statements made by the country’s Climate Minister to Reuters.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vital ocean current system that transports warm water from the equator toward the poles and returns cold water southward. This circulation helps keep European winters mild.
However, the warming climate is accelerating the melting of Arctic ice, releasing vast amounts of cold, fresh water from Greenland’s ice sheet into the ocean — a process that could significantly disrupt this critical current.
Scientists warn that a collapse of the AMOC could trigger a “mini ice age” in northern Europe, causing winter temperatures to plummet to unprecedented levels and bringing heavy snow and ice. The AMOC has collapsed before, most notably just before the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago.
Iceland’s Climate Minister, Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, emphasized that this is “the first time a climate-related event has been formally presented to the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.” The country’s ministries are now coordinating efforts to assess risks and prepare contingency plans covering sectors from energy and food security to infrastructure and international transport.
A collapse of the Atlantic current would have far-reaching global impacts, potentially destabilizing rainfall patterns that sustain agriculture across Africa, India, and South America, and accelerating the melting of ice around Antarctica.
The Nordic Council of Ministers has already funded research initiatives, including the recent Nordic Tipping Week, where over 60 experts examined the potential social and environmental effects of such an event.
While some scientists believe a sudden collapse is unlikely within this century, others warn that the tipping point could be much closer than expected if global temperatures continue to rise.
As Minister Jóhannsson stated, “We cannot wait for definitive, long-term conclusions before taking action.” Iceland is now working to strengthen its national resilience against the growing risks of climate-driven disruptions — a stark reminder that the time for preparation is now.
