A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would not only bring brutally cold, polar-style winters back to Europe — it could also trigger an even more alarming consequence: long-lasting droughts across much of the continent.
Once considered a remote or speculative threat, the weakening of AMOC has now become a central concern in climate science. This massive ocean circulation system, which includes the Gulf Stream, plays a critical role in regulating Earth’s climate by transporting warm water from the South Atlantic toward the North Atlantic, where it releases heat and helps moderate temperatures across Europe.
This northward flow of warm water is the reason Europe enjoys relatively mild winters compared to regions at similar latitudes, such as Canada. Without it, scientists warn that Europe would face far colder conditions, with expanding sea ice potentially reaching as far south as the British Isles.
Collapse of key Atlantic current could bring extreme drought to Europe for centuries, study finds.
That's an under-appreciated impact of an #AMOC shutdown, of particular concern given the recent results showing much higher likelihood of this. 1/2https://t.co/thkGepMJIQ pic.twitter.com/RnRowExEJc
— Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 (@rahmstorf) December 5, 2025
However, a new study from Utrecht University highlights a danger that goes beyond freezing temperatures. According to the researchers, AMOC is not only a heat conveyor — it also transports moisture. If the current weakens or collapses, Europe would become significantly drier.
Climate models used in the study suggest dramatic changes in rainfall patterns. In a scenario without AMOC, the dry season could lengthen by up to 72% in Sweden and 60% in Spain. Northern Europe, often associated with abundant rainfall, would be particularly vulnerable to prolonged droughts.
These findings are especially concerning because droughts tend to have deeper and longer-lasting impacts than cold winters alone. Reduced water availability would threaten agriculture, strain economies, disrupt ecosystems, and challenge water security for millions of people.
While scientists agree that a complete AMOC collapse is unlikely to occur before the next century, the consequences would be anything but temporary. The study suggests that the resulting dry conditions could persist for at least a thousand years, fundamentally reshaping Europe’s climate and landscape.
As climate change continues to accelerate, researchers stress that understanding and protecting key climate systems like AMOC is essential — not only to prevent colder winters, but to avoid a future defined by widespread and enduring drought.
